Instituto
San Lorenzo
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Instituto 0.88, San Lorenzo 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 67%. Instituto won 4 of their last 5; San Lorenzo won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| 2San Lorenzo | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.88 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.3%
- 1–016.9%
- 0–114.9%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 67% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Instituto 0| Instituto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 23% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 35% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 20% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.