Instituto
Club Atletico Platense
The model leans Instituto at 50%. Expected goals: Instituto 1.13, Club Atletico Platense 0.49. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 73%. Instituto won 4 of their last 5; Club Atletico Platense won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
| 2Club Atletico Platense | 15% | 6.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Instituto. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 0.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 1–022.4%
- 0–019.8%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Instituto −0.5| Instituto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 29% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 13% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.