Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Independiente
0–1
Lost
Club Atletico Platense
The model leans Independiente at 55%. Expected goals: Independiente 1.69, Club Atletico Platense 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match64
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Club Atletico Platense | 11% | 9.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.1%
- 2–015.3%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–08.6%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente −1| Independiente line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.