Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Independiente
1–0
Won
Newell's Old Boys
The model leans Independiente at 63%. Expected goals: Independiente 2.37, Newell's Old Boys 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match72
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente | 72% | 1.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Newell's Old Boys | 10% | 9.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.37 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.8%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente −1.5| Independiente line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.