Club Atletico Platense
Union
The model leans Union at 39%. Expected goals: Club Atletico Platense 0.71, Union 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%. Club Atletico Platense won 2 of their last 6; Union won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Club Atletico Platense | 23% | 4.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Union | 42% | 2.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.71 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.0%
- 0–016.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union −0.5| Club Atletico Platense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 17% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 32% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.