Boca Juniors
Lanús
The model leans Boca Juniors at 51%. Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.47, Lanús 0.57. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%. Boca Juniors won 1 of their last 4; Lanús won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Boca Juniors | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Lanús | 13% | 7.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Boca Juniors. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 0.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.1%
- 2–014.1%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Boca Juniors −1| Boca Juniors line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 26% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.