Predictions · Copa Argentina · outside model coverage
Vélez Sarsfield
0–0
Won
Boca Juniors
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Vélez Sarsfield 0.75, Boca Juniors 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 67%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match27
37
35
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vélez Sarsfield | 27% | 3.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Boca Juniors | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.75 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.3%
- 0–117.2%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 66% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vélez Sarsfield 0| Vélez Sarsfield line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 20% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 35% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.