Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Deportivo Riestra
1–1
Won
Vélez Sarsfield
The model leans Draw at 44%. Expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 0.46, Vélez Sarsfield 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 83%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match22
47
30
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Riestra | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Vélez Sarsfield | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.46 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 91% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% |
| Both teams to score | Yes16% | No84% |
Most likely scores
- 0–035.3%
- 0–120.5%
- 1–016.3%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–26.0%
- 2–03.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 72% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Riestra 0| Deportivo Riestra line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 19% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 45% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 23% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.