Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Deportivo Riestra
2–0
Lost
Estudiantes
The model leans Draw at 43%. Expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 0.35, Estudiantes 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 84%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match16
46
38
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Riestra | 16% | 6.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Estudiantes | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.35 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 91% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% |
| Both teams to score | Yes15% | No85% |
Most likely scores
- 0–035.4%
- 0–124.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–22.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 72% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Riestra 0| Deportivo Riestra line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 14% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 44% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 27% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.