Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Sarmiento
2–0
Lost
Estudiantes
The model leans Estudiantes at 41%. Expected goals: Sarmiento 0.54, Estudiantes 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 73%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match18
37
45
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sarmiento | 18% | 5.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Estudiantes | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Estudiantes. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.54 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 0–021.6%
- 0–121.5%
- 1–011.6%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Estudiantes −0.5| Sarmiento line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 15% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 35% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.