Atletico Tucuman
Sarmiento
The model leans Atletico Tucuman at 46%. Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 1.32, Sarmiento 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 60%. Atletico Tucuman won 2 of their last 6; Sarmiento won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico Tucuman | 48% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarmiento | 20% | 4.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico Tucuman. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–012.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Tucuman −0.5| Atletico Tucuman line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 26% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 29% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.