Atletico Tucuman
Independiente Rivadavia
The model leans Independiente Rivadavia at 37%. Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 1.19, Independiente Rivadavia 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Atletico Tucuman won 2 of their last 6; Independiente Rivadavia won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico Tucuman | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Independiente Rivadavia | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente Rivadavia. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.0%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Tucuman 0| Atletico Tucuman line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 22% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.