Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Atlético Tucumán
0–0
Lost
Belgrano
The model leans Belgrano at 37%. Expected goals: Atlético Tucumán 0.92, Belgrano 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match28
33
39
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Tucumán | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Belgrano | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Belgrano. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.8%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atlético Tucumán 0| Atlético Tucumán line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 30% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.