Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Tigre
0–0
Won
Belgrano
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Tigre 0.84, Belgrano 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 69%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match33
38
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigre | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Belgrano | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.84 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.3%
- 1–017.1%
- 0–115.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 2–07.2%
- 0–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tigre 0| Tigre line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.