Tigre
Barracas Central
The model leans Tigre at 42%. Expected goals: Tigre 1.12, Barracas Central 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 67%. Tigre won 0 of their last 4; Barracas Central won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigre | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
| 2Barracas Central | 19% | 5.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tigre. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.5%
- 0–017.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tigre −0.5| Tigre line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 32% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 15% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.