Barracas Central
Aldosivi
The model leans Barracas Central at 50%. Expected goals: Barracas Central 1.18, Aldosivi 0.50. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%. Barracas Central won 3 of their last 5; Aldosivi won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barracas Central | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Aldosivi | 15% | 6.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barracas Central. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 0.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 1–021.9%
- 0–018.5%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barracas Central −0.5| Barracas Central line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 31% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.