Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Aldosivi
1–2
Won
Gimnasia LP
The model leans Gimnasia LP at 38%. Expected goals: Aldosivi 0.67, Gimnasia LP 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 68%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match23
37
40
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aldosivi | 23% | 4.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Gimnasia LP | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gimnasia LP. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.67 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.1%
- 0–118.8%
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 65% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gimnasia LP −0.5| Aldosivi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 18% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 34% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.