Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Defensa y Justicia
1–1
Lost
Aldosivi
The model leans Defensa y Justicia at 43%. Expected goals: Defensa y Justicia 1.19, Aldosivi 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match47
33
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Defensa y Justicia | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Aldosivi | 20% | 5.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Defensa y Justicia. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.3%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Defensa y Justicia −0.5| Defensa y Justicia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.