Aldosivi
Tigre
The model leans Draw at 38%. Expected goals: Aldosivi 0.55, Tigre 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 75%. Aldosivi won 0 of their last 5; Tigre won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aldosivi | 22% | 4.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Tigre | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.55 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 84% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% |
| Both teams to score | Yes24% | No76% |
Most likely scores
- 0–025.3%
- 0–120.8%
- 1–014.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–24.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aldosivi 0| Aldosivi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 17% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 38% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.