Sarmiento
Huracan
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Sarmiento 0.80, Huracan 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 67%. Sarmiento won 3 of their last 3; Huracan won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sarmiento | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Huracan | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.80 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.8%
- 0–116.5%
- 1–015.0%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 63% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sarmiento 0| Sarmiento line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 21% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 34% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.