Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Banfield
The model leans Banfield at 38%. Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.63, Banfield 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 70%. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of their last 5; Banfield won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 22% | 4.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Banfield | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Banfield. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.63 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.8%
- 0–119.6%
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Banfield −0.5| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 17% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 35% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.