Predictions · Liga Profesional Clausura · outside model coverage
Banfield
2–3
Won
River Plate
The model leans River Plate at 39%. Expected goals: Banfield 0.91, River Plate 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match26
32
42
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Banfield | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
| 2River Plate | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: River Plate. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.91 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: River Plate −0.5| Banfield line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 29% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.