Al-Karma
Al-Mosul
The model leans Al-Karma at 47%. Expected goals: Al-Karma 1.33, Al-Mosul 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. Al-Karma won 3 of their last 5; Al-Mosul won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Karma | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Mosul | 20% | 5.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Karma. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–012.4%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Karma −0.5| Al-Karma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 28% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.