Al-Mosul
Al Zawraa
The model leans Al Zawraa at 39%. Expected goals: Al-Mosul 0.98, Al Zawraa 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Al-Mosul won 2 of their last 5; Al Zawraa won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Mosul | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Zawraa | 42% | 2.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Zawraa. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–28.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Mosul 0| Al-Mosul line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.