Al Zawraa
Naft Maysan
The model leans Al Zawraa at 50%. Expected goals: Al Zawraa 1.57, Naft Maysan 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Al Zawraa won 2 of their last 5; Naft Maysan won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Zawraa | 51% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Naft Maysan | 22% | 4.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Zawraa. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
- 0–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Zawraa −0.5| Al Zawraa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.