Al-Mosul
Karbalaa
The model leans Al-Mosul at 62%. Expected goals: Al-Mosul 2.89, Karbalaa 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 67%. Al-Mosul won 2 of their last 5; Karbalaa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Mosul | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Karbalaa | 13% | 7.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Mosul. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.89 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–06.9%
- 3–06.7%
- 4–15.8%
- 1–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Mosul −1.5| Al-Mosul line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| -1 | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 8% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.