Al Shorta
Karbalaa
The model leans Al Shorta at 74%. Expected goals: Al Shorta 4.15, Karbalaa 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 58%. Al Shorta won 1 of their last 3; Karbalaa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Shorta | 90% | 1.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 7% | 14.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Karbalaa | 3% | 30.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Shorta. Calibrated probability 74% (raw model output 90%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 97%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 4.15 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 73% | 27% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 4–08.3%
- 3–08.0%
- 4–17.3%
- 3–17.1%
- 5–06.9%
- 5–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Shorta −2| Al Shorta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| -1 | 78% | 12% | 10% |
| -0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| 0 | 90% | 7% | 4% |
| +0.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
| +1 | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.