Al-Karma
Karbalaa
The model leans Al-Karma at 69%. Expected goals: Al-Karma 2.85, Karbalaa 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 52%. Al-Karma won 3 of their last 5; Karbalaa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Karma | 81% | 1.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Karbalaa | 6% | 16.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Karma. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.85 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 4–07.8%
- 3–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Karma −2| Al-Karma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| -1 | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.