Predictions · Stars League Qualification · outside model coverage
Amanat Baghdad
0–1
Lost
Karbalaa
The model leans Amanat Baghdad at 50%. Expected goals: Amanat Baghdad 2.65, Karbalaa 1.84. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 79%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match55
19
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Amanat Baghdad | 55% | 1.82 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Karbalaa | 26% | 3.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Amanat Baghdad. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.65 – 1.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 65% | 35% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.4%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.5%
- 1–25.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Amanat Baghdad −1| Amanat Baghdad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 19% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 18% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 13% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.