Al-Karma
Al Shorta
The model leans Al Shorta at 33%. Expected goals: Al-Karma 0.97, Al Shorta 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Al-Karma won 3 of their last 5; Al Shorta won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Karma | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Shorta | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Shorta. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.8%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Karma 0| Al-Karma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.