Al Kahrabaa
Al-Karma
The model leans Al-Karma at 50%. Expected goals: Al Kahrabaa 0.76, Al-Karma 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%. Al Kahrabaa won 0 of their last 3; Al-Karma won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Kahrabaa | 19% | 5.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Karma | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Karma. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.9%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.5%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Karma −0.5| Al Kahrabaa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 14% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.