Al Kahrabaa
Al-Gharraf
The model leans Al-Gharraf at 31%. Expected goals: Al Kahrabaa 1.22, Al-Gharraf 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. Al Kahrabaa won 0 of their last 3; Al-Gharraf won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Kahrabaa | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Gharraf | 36% | 2.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Gharraf. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Kahrabaa 0| Al Kahrabaa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 20% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.