Duhok
Al-Gharraf
The model leans Duhok at 29%. Expected goals: Duhok 1.15, Al-Gharraf 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Duhok won 1 of their last 5; Al-Gharraf won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Duhok | 35% | 2.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Gharraf | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
Pick: Duhok. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–111.6%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Duhok 0| Duhok line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.