Al Naft
Duhok
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Al Naft 0.82, Duhok 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Al Naft won 0 of their last 3; Duhok won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Naft | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Duhok | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.8%
- 0–115.9%
- 1–015.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 63% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Naft 0| Al Naft line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 22% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 34% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.