Duhok
Al Talaba
The model leans Al Talaba at 42%. Expected goals: Duhok 0.99, Al Talaba 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Duhok won 1 of their last 5; Al Talaba won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Duhok | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Talaba | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Talaba. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 1.42| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Talaba −0.5| Duhok line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.