Al Talaba
Newroz
The model leans Al Talaba at 39%. Expected goals: Al Talaba 1.33, Newroz 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Al Talaba won 1 of their last 4; Newroz won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Talaba | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Newroz | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Talaba. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 2–08.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Talaba −0.5| Al Talaba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.