Al Talaba
Al Naft
The model leans Al Talaba at 41%. Expected goals: Al Talaba 1.05, Al Naft 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%. Al Talaba won 1 of their last 4; Al Naft won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Talaba | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Naft | 20% | 4.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Talaba. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.7%
- 0–018.8%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 63% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Talaba −0.5| Al Talaba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 33% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 16% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.