Al Minaa
Al-Gharraf
The model leans Al-Gharraf at 36%. Expected goals: Al Minaa 1.01, Al-Gharraf 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Al Minaa won 2 of their last 4; Al-Gharraf won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Minaa | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Gharraf | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Gharraf. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Minaa 0| Al Minaa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.