Al Minaa
Zakho
The model leans Zakho at 40%. Expected goals: Al Minaa 0.99, Zakho 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. Al Minaa won 2 of their last 4; Zakho won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Minaa | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Zakho | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zakho. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zakho −0.5| Al Minaa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 28% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.