Zakho
Diyala
The model leans Zakho at 40%. Expected goals: Zakho 1.25, Diyala 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%. Zakho won 0 of their last 3; Diyala won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zakho | 44% | 2.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Diyala | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zakho. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zakho −0.5| Zakho line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.