Al-Mosul
Diyala
The model leans Al-Mosul at 39%. Expected goals: Al-Mosul 1.26, Diyala 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%. Al-Mosul won 2 of their last 5; Diyala won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Mosul | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Diyala | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Mosul. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–08.7%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Mosul −0.5| Al-Mosul line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.