Al Shorta
Al-Mosul
The model leans Al Shorta at 53%. Expected goals: Al Shorta 1.94, Al-Mosul 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%. Al Shorta won 1 of their last 3; Al-Mosul won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Shorta | 60% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Mosul | 17% | 5.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Shorta. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–010.9%
- 2–010.6%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al Shorta −1| Al Shorta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 24% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 22% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.