Diyala
Al-Karma
The model leans Al-Karma at 50%. Expected goals: Diyala 0.59, Al-Karma 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 68%. Diyala won 1 of their last 4; Al-Karma won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Diyala | 17% | 5.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Karma | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Karma. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.59 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–120.1%
- 0–016.9%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–27.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Karma −0.5| Diyala line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 14% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 31% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.