Erbil
Al Kahrabaa
The model leans Erbil at 53%. Expected goals: Erbil 1.84, Al Kahrabaa 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%. Erbil won 3 of their last 4; Al Kahrabaa won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Erbil | 60% | 1.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Kahrabaa | 16% | 6.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Erbil. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.1%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 37% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Erbil −1| Erbil line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.