Erbil
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
The model leans Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 29%. Expected goals: Erbil 1.03, Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Erbil won 3 of their last 4; Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Erbil | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Erbil 0| Erbil line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 21% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.