Bursaspor
İstanbulspor
The model leans İstanbulspor at 75%. Expected goals: Bursaspor 0.05, İstanbulspor 2.58. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 95%. Bursaspor won 4 of their last 5; İstanbulspor won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bursaspor | 0% | 333.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 8% | 11.99 | – | – | – |
| 2İstanbulspor | 91% | 1.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: İstanbulspor. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 91%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.05 – 2.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes5% | No95% |
Most likely scores
- 0–224.0%
- 0–320.7%
- 0–118.6%
- 0–413.3%
- 0–07.2%
- 0–56.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 44% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: İstanbulspor −2| Bursaspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| -0.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| 0 | 0% | 8% | 91% |
| +0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| +1 | 9% | 20% | 72% |
| +1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.