Istanbulspor
Bodrum FK
The model leans Bodrum FK at 39%. Expected goals: Istanbulspor 1.26, Bodrum FK 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Istanbulspor won 0 of their last 5; Bodrum FK won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Istanbulspor | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Bodrum FK | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bodrum FK. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Istanbulspor 0| Istanbulspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.