Predictions · 1. Lig · outside model coverage

Van Spor Kulübü

32
Won

Istanbulspor

The model leans Van Spor Kulübü at 37%. Expected goals: Van Spor Kulübü 1.44, Istanbulspor 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Van Spor Kulübü won 1 of their last 3; Istanbulspor won 0 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Van Spor Kulübü38%2.62
XDraw28%3.61
2Istanbulspor34%2.93

Pick: Van Spor Kulübü. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.44 – 1.35
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.553%47%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.0%
  • 108.9%
  • 218.6%
  • 018.3%
  • 128.1%
  • 206.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Van Spor Kulübü 0
Van Spor Kulübü lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%21%61%
-0.539%61%
039%25%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%19%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.