İstanbulspor
Fatih Karagümrük
The model leans Fatih Karagümrük at 47%. Expected goals: İstanbulspor 1.13, Fatih Karagümrük 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. İstanbulspor won 0 of their last 5; Fatih Karagümrük won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1İstanbulspor | 24% | 4.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Fatih Karagümrük | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fatih Karagümrük. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fatih Karagümrük −0.5| İstanbulspor line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.