Fatih Karagümrük
Ümraniyespor
The model leans Fatih Karagümrük at 58%. Expected goals: Fatih Karagümrük 1.97, Ümraniyespor 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Fatih Karagümrük won 2 of their last 5; Ümraniyespor won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fatih Karagümrük | 66% | 1.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Ümraniyespor | 12% | 8.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fatih Karagümrük. Calibrated probability 58% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.97 – 0.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.3%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.6%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 39% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fatih Karagümrük −1| Fatih Karagümrük line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 25% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.